The Historicity of Jesus
A Bayesian reassessment
A focused historical question: did Christianity begin around an actual first-century Jewish founder? This reassessment compares the surviving evidence under historical and mythic-origin hypotheses.
The argument
The analysis examines reference classes, Pauline material, interpretations of “brother of the Lord,” and the weight of early narratives. Minimal historicity is separated from miracles and the reliability of particular Gospel episodes.
How to read this assessment
The paper’s roughly 38% historical estimate conflicts with the mainstream scholarly view and is highly sensitive to reference classes and textual interpretation. It is a transparent judgment, not a historical measurement.
A question worth pursuing
Which early evidence most strongly distinguishes a historical founder from a mythic origin?
Cite and share
This page provides an editorial introduction. Consult the paper for its complete evidence, assumptions, sources, and collaboration disclosures. Downloads preserve the edition retrieved on October 18, 2026.